Thursday, June 18, 2009

Mt. Washington prelude

Mt. Washington road race is Saturday. Weather looks to be decent for running (50s, showers) but not watching (Sorry, Cacky, Danielle, and Pete). Having never run a hill climb, I think any race prediction will be sketchy, at best. But here goes...

The quickest and best predictor is your previous Mt. Washington time. I don't have one. The next quickest is 1/2 marathon time. I haven't run a 1/2 marathon since Fall 05, when I first started running seriously, so I don't think that would be a useful predictor. But I can use a 10K race to predict my 1/2 marathon time. The McMillan predictor predicted my Fall 08 5K and 10K races perfectly (although, I was pacing myself based on the prediction so there is some circularity there!). Were I in fall '08 race shape (39:03 10K), my predicted 1/2 marathon time would be 1:26:54. The official Mt. Washington race predictor using my fall '08 10K gives me a low-high range: 1:21:25 - 1:26:18. The Mt. Washington predictor is a little optimistic based on the better runners who typically beat their 1/2 marathon times by a few minutes.

Of course I'm not well trained for the 1/2 marathon distance, and it's spring and not fall, and I've got my piriformis injury and my training has been extremely depressing for the last month. So I think a more realistic, optimistic 10K time might be 40 minutes which would give me a prediction of 1:29 (McMillan) or 1:23:24 - 1:28;24 (Mt. Washington predictor) and a more realistic, pessimistic 10K time (given the sore arse & sub-sub-sub optimal training) of 41:30 10K would give me a prediction of 1:32:21 (McMillan) or 1:26:31 - 1:31:43. This of course assumes that I don't bonk or have a sidestitch.

4 comments:

  1. I think you definantely have it narrowed down to "I'll know when the race is over and I receive my official time"

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  2. You sound just like Snowman. Predictions all over the place! :-)

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  3. Snide comments aside...

    Assuming your butt cooperates, I think sub-1:30 is a very realistic goal. I fully expect you to blow past me in the final mile.

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