Monday, September 27, 2010

Sign test


Humans look for signs to predict the future. We're pretty good at it, but far from perfect. Two contrasting signs emerged this weekend.
1) My HR on the 7+ miles on the Oak Hill/Campus loops at Pineland was very low for my 7:49 pace. I had the static-induced HR spike during mile 2-3 but over the last 4.3 miles, which was net uphill, my pace was 7:43/mile and HR averaged 136.5 (77.6 MHR). Compare this to April/May, when I last ran Pineland. The chart above shows five data points - the four to the right are from the spring and the one to the left was yesterday. I'm basing my marathon training on my Mother's Day 5K time from May (which was reinforced by my Beach to Beacon 10K). Either I'm now in much better fitness or my watch was broken or I was having an intense parasympathetic experience.

2) I scanned the results of the Maine Marathon since 1998 and was stressed by the uncommonness of sub 3 marathons among runners that are about my 5K/10K speed.

9 comments:

  1. I think some one wise often says, "just run, baby," or something to that effect. Other than that, I pick door #1.

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  2. I think that the Maine Marathon is a relatively slow course.

    That said, your in great shape, and in much better shape than you were in in May, and I have no doubt you'll be able to run a sub-3.

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  3. Your high nerd factor is messing with your head.

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  4. I was procrastinating from analyzing my research data. But I was still analyzing!

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  5. Alright, screw this post. I still have issue with you even having to think about registering for Boston after you qualify this weekend (yes, I knocked on wood).

    But back to your post... sounds like pre-race jitters to me. Screw it man, just trust your training and run smart and hard. We all know you're capable of sub-three. Best of luck, my friend, and try to keep sane in this final week.

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  6. Running Boston after skiing until mid-April would be slow and painful, which is why I've really not given it a thought. Would they allow me to double pole it on roller skis?

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  7. I like Val's comment :-) Go Jeff go!

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  8. I totally understand with the Nordic... but dude.. it's Boston...

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  9. If you qualify.....well when you qualify, don't even think about giving up the chance to run Boston....I would love to get that chance.
    I agree with the others, you are in fantastic shape...do not let your mind try to convince you other wise.

    these runners with similar 5/10K speed probably did not run the trails like you have so you can't judge by their performance.

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