Am I slower or are summers hotter?

Fig. 1. I am getting slower! These are my 5K equivalent times for all races 5K to 10K distance over the last three years. For the 8K, 5M, and 10K times I used McMillan to estimate the 5K equivalent time. Day is simply number of days since a race in 2005, so you can see the 2010, 2011 and 2012 clusters. The correlation here is .65 Also notice that race times get worse through each season. You cannot tell this from the graph but my 2010 summer races were especially cool (at least B2B). This suggests...

Fig. 2 Dew Point matters! This is a pretty stunning, given all the other factors that can effect race performance including especially point in training cycle and freshness (no, mild, or full taper). The linear correlation is .81. I would expect the relationship to actually be quadratic (green line) as dew point should have little effect when low but dramatic effect when high. The quadratic component is not significant statistically but shouldn't be rejected using a model selection approach. This summer's B2B was super high dew point and I also ran a 5K in Florida. By contrast in 2010, my only 5K was in early spring and the B2B was beautifully cool and dry. This suggests...

Fig 3. GLOBAL WARMING!!!! Not really, but this is even more stunning because this very high correlation (.77) is completely coincidental. I happened to run early spring races in 2010 and 2011 and summer race days were mild in 2010, hot in 2011 and even hotter in 2012. This suggests that maybe my slowdown (Fig. 1) is only apparent and that actually what is happening is that I've been simply racing in hotter weather. This suggests...

Fig. 4. I'm not slowing! The Y axis is my 5K equivalent times corrected for dew point. That is, I used the residuals of the Times v. Dew Point regression and plotted these against Day. Voila! To verify this, I used a simple multiple regression with Dew Point (and DP^2) and Day in the model. Day explains very, very little variation above and beyond Dew Point.

Conclusion: What appears like a very clear slow down over the past 3 year is really due to the differences in the timing of my races between 2010, 2011, and 2012 AND warmer, more humid 2011 and especially 2012 compared to 2010. Sadly though, I'm not getting faster either. 

file under: how to lie with statistics

B2B training & Baldface

In May I was 100% convinced that I would not be writing this post because of writing off 2012 racing due to my RCB. Perhaps paradoxically this led to my decision to jump into the Pineland 10K for fun since any damage from the race wouldn't matter. While that race completely sucked, it did give me confidence that I could train a little harder without aggravating my RCB to an unrunnable state. I set a pretty conservative goal - a workout (interval, tempo, or long run) every 4 days or so instead of the more typical every-other day. My intervals and tempos have also been conservative - My tempos have been at something between MP and 1/2MP while my intervals have been 1/3 - 1/2 mile hill repeats at a hard effort. No track work. Only one Daniel's 20 minute tempo at 15K pace. I also entered a few road races and counted these as workouts. In the end, I'm extremely happy with my buildup for B2B considering that I thought I would still be running 10 min/mile trail runs at this point.

I was hoping to get a few solid 60 mile weeks in but that didn't happen. Here is my mileage compared to the last two years.

I'm averaging just shy of 50 mpw, which is the same mileage as 2010 when I set my 10K PR and 5 miles/week less than last year. Not really high mileage for my time goals but I cannot seem to find the mojo to train more. I do feel like I'm only a bit short of 2010 fitness but the early forecast for B2B is high humidity (dew point of 66F) so I'm expecting a slogfest like 2011 instead of a PR day like 2010.

Today I celebrated my buildup with a sweet Baldface Loop with Don, Tom Hoag, and Susannah. We had cool temps but 100% humidity, which meant wet rocks and bodies. I went at a steady-moderate pace (about 53 min) to the first false summit (at the top of the ledges below South Baldface) but took it easy after that. We descended the Bicknell trail which has very spectacular views of the cirque and loop. Then we took the Eagle Cascade link over to the Baldface Circle trail. The link trail was through really, really beautiful forest. Emerald Pool was the perrrrrrrrfect temperature. My total run was about .4 miles long because I did a down and back from the false summit to allow the others to catch up : ). After the run we stopped at the Stow Corner Store, which was recommended by Ian and Emma. I had a large slice of pizza and gIANt cinnamon roll topped with a secret recipe crumble and whipped cream.

racing, heat, humidity, sun energy

In preparation for the B2B next week, I've looked a little more into climate factors that affect pace. A very nice explanation of humidity and dew point is here. Dew point is the better guide to comfort level. Kristin Barry sums it up with this chart:

DEW POINT (°F)	RUNNER'S PERCEPTION	HOW TO HANDLE
50–54	Very comfortable	PR conditions
55–59	Comfortable	Hard efforts likely not affected
60–64	Uncomfortable for some people	Expect race times to be slower than in optimal conditions
65–69	Uncomfortable for most people	Easy training runs might feel OK but difficult to race well or do hard efforts
70–74	Very humid and uncomfortable	Expect pace to suffer greatly
75 or greater	Extremely oppressive	Skip it or dramatically alter goal

I've roughly estimated the mid-point T and dew point for my summer races for the past 3 years using the climate history data at weather underground.

Year Race                          T    Dew Point   Result

2012 Bridge of Lions (Florida)     78F     73F    18:32

2012 LL Bean 10K                   66      63     38:06

2012 Fathers Day 5K                61      48     18:12

2011 B2B 10K                       68      64     38:00

2011 LL Bean 10K                   65      65     38:30
2011 Mothers Day 5K                58      49     17:52 PR

2011 Clam Festival 5Mile           70      58     30:0x PR

2010 B2B 10K                       58      48     37:24 PR

I also think the directness of the sun matters (so the sun temp and not shade temp) since most of these races are run in direct sun and not shade but I don't have any historical record of sun temp.

What amazes me is the actual temperature of the maine races is generally very cool but comparing the dew temp with the chart shows that some of the races will suffer, such as both LL Bean's and the 2011 B2B. B2B 2010 was really perfect. And again, male runners over 35 y.o. and in top 400 who competed in 2010 and 2011 were, on average, exactly 1.0 minute slower in 2011 than 2010 (N=61).  In this light, I guess my Bridge of Lions 5K isn't too bad but it's really hard to compare since that is my only race in that kind of temp/dew point.

                

Florida Five

My speedwork for this week was the Bridge of Lions 5K in St. Augustine Fl. My goal for the race was to go out a little slower than 18 min. pace and see if I could hang on in the heat and humidity and maybe even break 18. My first mile was 5:50, so right on target. And I was feeling shockingly good. Mile two was 5:49. Now I started to think about breaking 18 with a fast 3rd mile. I had started to feel a little pain a little after the 1/2way mark, which is pretty typical in a 5K for me. By mile 2 I was still ok. Finished mile 3 in 5:53. Hmm - definitely a slow down there and not a speed up but still looking at very low 18s. I crossed the finish line in 18:32 - so a good 20-25s slower than where I thought I was. What happened? Did I walk the last .1 mile? What happened was a major mismatch between my watch and the official distance, which is USATF certified. My final pace according to my watch was 5:50 but my pace according to a 5K distance was 5:58, an 8 sec/mile difference (the race results say 5:59 pace). My watch has never been more than 2s/mile off on a road race. Maybe I failed to run tangents although I was thinking about these. Look at the course:

That's a lot of turns. I gmap-pedometered the course using the automatic route finder and got 3.21 miles. I then did the manual gmap pedometer making sure to mark the tangents and got 3.15 miles. This all points to the importance of tangents on a turny course. Ah well. It's a race and we all ran the same course. I finished 14th T13th overall (thanks mom for noticing this) and 2nd master.

The course itself is ok. It starts at the very cool fort (the Castillo de San Marcos), crosses the Bridge of Lions, and then turns into the old Davis Shores neighborhood, which is a nice old neighborhood. The turns in the neighborhood are a bit excessive. And running a race in Florida in the summer is kinda stupid. Other than that, it was quite nice and I'll run it again if I happend to visit the padres in mid-July again.

Which reminds me, I'm in St. Augustine visiting my parents and sisters and their familias. My parents moved to St. Augustine Beach after my dad retired from UF in Gainesville. Here are my other runs from the week. No hill repeats this week!

All on the beach except my 14 mile concrete sidewalk run on Sunday.

LL Bean 10K

LL Bean in 38:06 this morning in cool but very humid weather. Race analysis paralysis to follow.

• The Good - won my AG
• The Bad - as Ryan noted, my AG is certainly less competitive TO WIN then either M40-44 or M50-54
• The Bad - My 5K conversion time was 8s slower than FD5K last month and my FD5K was 22s slower than my 2011 MD5K on the same course
• The Good - I was 25s faster than last year's LL Bean 10K.
• The Bad - I ran this race last year at the end of a 60 mile week. This year was a 50 mile week with a rest day 2 days before the race.  The weather this year was maybe slightly cooler and slightly less humid (last year's humidity was about 150%)
• The Good - I have done zero running faster than 1/2MP since last October?November? other than FD5K and the 1st half of the Pineland 10K.

I'm happy with the result because 1) I'm focussing on the 25s faster than last year's race AND 2) the fact that I really haven't taken my workouts down to even 10K pace AND 3) I raced so poorly last summer/fall so I need to be happy about something 

Full results

Mount W and FD5K: Not your doctor's management plan

I had been planning on running up Mount Washington since March 18, which was when I heard that I failed to make it through the lottery for the road race. I was excited to both 1) get in my first mountain run of the season (I'm not counting Pack Monadnock) and 2) watch the elite racers take on the wall at the finish of the race. Despite the absolute fantastic forecast and the chance to watch the badass mountain elites, and the opportunity to get in what I would think would be a badass double weekend that should be the bread-and-butter for Big Brad/Vermont 100 training, I got a lot of negatory responses from TMR. But Susannah Beck took the bait and we had a great climb in gorgeous weather. The goal was to simply get in some strength training, not twist an ankle, and not challenge the O2 delivery system, so we maintained a very reasonable running pace and even walked some of the steeper sections. Once we turned onto Lion's head, it was almost all walking. Above the treeline, we briefly chatted with Jamie and Kate, who were also hiking to watch the race. The last little push to the top (rock hoppin' the boulder field) required a surprisingly high effort given that we were walking but I guess the trail is kind of steep in that section! We reached the summit sign in 95 minutes and in one piece.

We stayed at the summit for about 1 hour and then took the Tuckerman Ravine trail down. I had never been in the ravine so was eager to see it despite the looooooong train of hikers ascending. This made for slow progress. Once we passed ho-jos we did a very ez jog down the ski trail. At one point I turned around to look for Susannah and noticed two guys running down at a moderate pace and figured they had also run up to watch the race. But it was Sage Canaday (1st place) and Max King (8th place) - not who I was expecting to see running down the trail (wasn't there an awards ceremony at the base of the auto road?). We also ran into Chuck and Katy heading up! Our time down was about 2 hours and our pace on the ski trail was about the same as that climbing it! My left retrocalaneal bursitis and my right achilles felt surprisingly good until we spent 5 minutes soaking our feet in the very cold river and THEN starting jogging again. Running on the frozen tendons was NOT what the doctor ordered.

I had also been planning on racing the Sea Dogs Father's Day 5K since I signed up for the MD5K back in February. I bailed on the MD5K due to injury. I still have the same injury but I've either grown in wisdom (that I can race on it) or thrown wisdom out the window. I also decided to race in my asics piranahs, which are about the sweetest, reasonably durable racing flats out there (< 5 oz). The low heel drop (4 mm) and fast pace would put a strain on my L and R achilles that they hadn't seen in 9 months. The race went well enough, I guess I thought a 18:15 was on the table but given my complete lack of fast training (other than last week my fastest training pace was about 7:20 - last week I dropped this to 6:40). I ran 18:12 so I'm pretty happy with that. I even outkicked some guy in the last 100 m. Following the race I did a 4 mile cool down, also in the Piranahs despite having brought wu/cd shoes.

Mountain runs and 5Ks in low-heal racers are not the conventional prescription for calf/achilles/RCB issues. I'm going to take this weekend as a green light that I can bump up my running and maybe even train to race and not just run slow in the woods.

Pack Monadnock

My annual fishing trip was rained out so I decided to go run a small mountain instead, the Pack Monadnock, which is #3 in the USATF mountain running series (meaning many of the big dogs were out to play). I stayed with a friend in Concord NH the night before, which may have been a mistake because I was up late (for me) and had lots of beer (for me), which meant I had  3.5 12 oz beers and was in bed by midnight.

The Course

The race is point-2-point and despite the elevation profile, is quite rolling with short climbs and descents and a net gain of around 670 feet over the first 7 miles. The first mile climbed 260' in a 3/4 mile stretch. That's a good way to start a race! The 8th mile (still not on the mountain) climbs another 190 feet. The first 8 miles averages 197 feet of elevation gain per mile, which is slightly more than, say, climbing Mountain Rd in Falmouth (about 180'/mile). This is hilly for a road race but certainly not a mountain run. The Mid-Winter Classic 10 miler averages 70' per mile elevation gain, so is super flat by comparison. The first 7 miles really did roll; the number of descents surprised me enough that I wasn't actually sure that we had done any net climb by mile 7 (obviously my "feel" was way off).

At 7.9 miles the course turns onto route 101 and there is a good climb (6-8% grade) to the park entrance. At 8.7 miles you enter the park and actually start the mountain climb. The race web site advertised grades like Mt. Washington and it didn't disappoint. The first 1/2 mile of road is about 12-14% grade continuous. This is harder than Mt. Washington. The second 1/2 mile is back to about 6-8% and makes you feel like running, if you still have gas in the tank. The last 1/3 mile  starts with a Mount Washington grade but then turns onto a loooooong wall of  >20%. The wall is maybe 200 meters, which is much longer than the final wall on Mt. Washington and just as steep. It's sick.

Grade over the last 2.1 miles (from the turn onto Rt. 101 to the finish). The park rd. begins at mile 8.7. Individual points for the grade were averaged over 11 gps points (taken every 3 seconds) so even the red line is smoothed. The error is in the location of the GPS point which on a steep hill can create lots of noise.

My Race

I'll be brief. My goal was 1:18 which seemed conservative but given my 10K last week maybe even this was optimistic. I was very conservative on the first mile (which was again very uphill) and lots of people passed me. I passed a few people after mile 1 but then settled into a long lonely race where I ran alone, wasn't passed by anyone, and took about 6 miles to close the 50 meter gap with the two guys in front of me. Once I caught them I dropped them quickly and slowly closed the gap with another pack of about 5. I passed this entire pack on the Rt. 101 section between mile 8 and the park entrance (mile 8.7). On the park road, I passed about 4-5 more runners, and again, wasn't passed by anyone from behind. Finish time was 1:17:55 for 38th out of 201 runners. Wow, nailed the goal which is good, but not great since it was a conservative goal.

My Achilles

About 10 days ago I started to lean toward the source of pain being retrocalcaneal bursitis rather than insertional achilles. I based this conclusion on the ability to cause pain when I poked my heel with the achilles flaccid but not when tensed (hence the pain would seem to be deep to the tendon unless a tense tendon isn't painful for some reason). In response, I started myself on an NSAID treatment, which is usually something that I avoid (again tendon injuries aren't typically inflammation but tears).