Perhaps my subconscious was able to process the information better after a good night's sleep... now the graphs make perfect sense where as before I was confused. Fret not, fall is upon us and plenty of time to reach your peak.
Top Plot - the line represents equal time in both races. If you are above this line. You had a shit B2B relative to LL Bean. If you are below the line, you had a good B2B. Since most people try to peak or at least taper for B2B, then most people should be below the line. Most are. I'm not. I had a shit race.Middle Plot - The line represents the actual predicted time for B2B 2012 given your B2B 2011. Ditto as above for above and below the line. This suggest I had a shit race but not as shit as the top fig suggests.Lower plot - These are all my races and the line is how I race relative to Dew Point. Ditto as above for above and below the line. Again I am above the line. I had a shit raceConclusion - I mined, and mined, and mined for a way to find the non-shitiness of my B2B race but no matter how I tried to find a statistic to do this I failed and I can only conclude I had a shit race.
If you did not train nor taper for this particular race, which should put it in a semi race catagory, couldn't you create a scale and in affect scale it according to training effort. This would bring the average down and thus label this an ok race and the LL bean an extra ordinary race......when considering training, condition and dew point
I think Pathfinder is on to something. Jeff's graphs never seem to take into consideration training (or the mental aspects of racing).
Sadly Pathfinder, B2B *was* a goal race and I did taper for it. Maybe I don't know how to taper or maybe I don't really run enough miles per week or hard enough in training for a taper to really matter much.By not writing anything about the race, I'll say here what impressed me most is the people who raced well in the heat/humidity. The Maine winner (Ethan Shaw) thought it was a "beautiful day to run" (quote in the Portland Press Herald). Sheri Piers (Maine Winner) was only 20s from her PR. Those were impressive runs.
I just plain think you have a) too much time on your hands and/or b) you take life and running too seriously. Just go out there and have fun.
Wow Chuck, who pissed in your Cheerios?
or c) I like analyzing data
I was at the finish line for the entire race, and I can tell you the number of people that had shit races, passed out, had to be carried away by medical, was the most I've ever seen. Dew point was a much greater factor than I think you give it credit for. How many people, by time and age, ended up needing medical that day? - Chandra