1. There is a big difference between how sub 1:20 and over 1:20 half-marathoners perform at Mount Washington. Sub 1:20 half-marathoners don't seem to blow up. Over 1:20 half-marathoners do. Sub 1:20 half-marathoners often run faster at Mount Washington. Over 1:20 half-marathoners less commonly.
3. The Mount Washington race predictor spreadsheet (downloadable from the race web site) predicts an expected time range, which is essentially a 5 minute window from 5 minutes less than your 1/2 marathon time up to your 1/2 marathon time. So the blue line in the graph is at the high end of the website's predictor. The New Bedford data show that this is really only a good predictor for the elite (sub 1:10 runners). For 1:10 - 1:20 half-marathoners, your half-marathon time is a pretty good predictor of your Mount Washington time.
4. If your half-marathon time is over 1:20, Mount Washington prediction is difficult. If you run a good race you should be close to your half-marathon time. But you are also more likely to blow-up (see final comment below).
5. The website predictor is optimistic if you are not an elite runner. And the slower you are, the more optimistic it is. Compare:
6. Does the official race predictor make sub-elite and especially over 1:20 runners go out too fast, sending them into a slow death spiral from which they won't recover?4. If your half-marathon time is over 1:20, Mount Washington prediction is difficult. If you run a good race you should be close to your half-marathon time. But you are also more likely to blow-up (see final comment below).
5. The website predictor is optimistic if you are not an elite runner. And the slower you are, the more optimistic it is. Compare:
Caveats - I don't have good data for sub 1:10 half-marathoners because not enough run both New Bedford and Mount Washington. Even worse, the sharp deviation of the curved line at the elite end may be heavily influenced by a single elite mountain runner, Eric Blake, whose Mount Washington Times are 7-11 minutes faster than his New Bedford times.
I'm a curve breaker for sure. 1:20 at NB, Dunn-10sec at MW. The problem with NB is it takes place so early in the year. I'm definitely NOT in 1:20 shape at the moment so it's a unfair comparison for me at least. NB had decent weather this year, wasn't a factor.
ReplyDeleteGood stuff but it isn't convincing me to run it again :-)
Wolfe, will you please stop? Dogging me on my blog is one thing. Doing me on other people's blogs is something all together different. And wrong. Jeff, great regression equations. The last 1/2 I did was Big Lake, 1:25ish. I was Wolfe+10 at MWRR. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing I understood in that post was "slow death spiral." I have that sucker mastered.
ReplyDeleteHey Chris, at least I got my own dot on Jeff's graph.
ReplyDeleteI didn't use a race predictor on MW (can you tell?). I went with the deer fly strategy and pestered certain folks all the way up. Apparently the strategy is still in place.